Ahead of the Threat

REPORT
COUNTRIES
SHIELD
DASHBOARD

RESEARCH

Ahead of the Threat Data Dashboard

This interactive data visualization dashboard features results from the 2026 Ahead of the Threat survey, fielded to senior civilian and military officials across 13 target countries to identify national preparedness and strategic readiness challenges. The survey data is complemented by the latest publicly available, open-source data, including metrics and policy information on defense budgets, personnel, technology, and governance.

SURVEY
BUDGET
PERSONNEL
TECHNOLOGY
GOVERNANCE

Anticipate and understand exposure

The ability to identify, assess and monitor the threats, dependencies and vulnerabilities that could affect national objectives, and to understand what must be prepared before disruption occurs

Decide

The ability to identify, assess and monitor the threats, dependencies and vulnerabilities that could affect national objectives, and to understand what must be prepared before disruption occurs

Generate

The ability to identify, assess and monitor the threats, dependencies and vulnerabilities that could affect national objectives, and to understand what must be prepared before disruption occurs

Sustain

The ability to identify, assess and monitor the threats, dependencies and vulnerabilities that could affect national objectives, and to understand what must be prepared before disruption occurs

Adapt

The ability to identify, assess and monitor the threats, dependencies and vulnerabilities that could affect national objectives, and to understand what must be prepared before disruption occurs

Survey Results

Drawing on responses from 196 current and recently former senior civilian and military leaders across 13 countries, this section presents Ahead of the Threat survey findings on how states understand and adapt to emerging security threats, along with the critical factors driving national readiness for prolonged, high-intensity conflicts.

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Speed of authorized military direction following a disaster or an attack

On average, how quickly is the national authority designated by law to command the armed forces able to produce an authorized direction for military operations in response to the following situations.

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.

 

Extent to which national defense leaders work with industry and civil authorities on mobilization

To what extent does the following statement describe typical performance in your national defense system? “Our national defense leaders work with industry and relevant civil authorities to carry out coordinated mobilization actions when responding to an imminent or active threat escalation.”

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.

 

Extent of integration of national-power instruments

To what extent does the following describe typical performance in your country of service? “When national security objectives require integrated national action, the diplomatic, informational, military, and economic instruments of our national power are translated into coordinated actions within a common plan, rather than remaining delayed, separate, or conflicting.”

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.

 

Greatest barriers to continuous modernization

Please select up to three factors that are the greatest barriers to your national defense organization operating in the way described here: “Continuous modernization and institutional transformation are executed across the national defense organization with the discipline, agility, and management rigor of a high-performing enterprise, enabling adaptation of legacy structures and adoption of new operating paradigms without prolonged implementation delays.”

Note: Top 5 responses.

 

Top mechanisms for accessing non-traditional suppliers

Which are the top three mechanisms that are most important in enabling the national defense organization to mobilize, contract with, and field capabilities from non-traditional suppliers in wartime?

Note: Top 5 responses.

 

Extent of improvement toward an ‘always-on’ industrial base

To what extent have the following actions improved your nation’s ability to maintain an ‘always-on’ defense industrial base?

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.

 

Frequency of supplier switching after disruption

In the past five years (since 2021), how frequently has your national defense system had to switch suppliers for large-scale defense programs due to the following types of disruption?

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.

 

Extent of concern about weaponized supply chains

To what extent are you concerned that global supply chains could be weaponized by other countries in ways that undermine your nation’s ability to mobilize and sustain military operations in response to both kinetic and non-kinetic disruption?

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.

 

Ability to sustain essential personnel under crisis

To what extent is the following statement true about your country of service in the following scenarios? “The national defense system is able to keep the necessary military and civilian personnel available, protected, and operational under crisis – including when facing attrition, burnout, legal / medical loss, or adversary targeting.”

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.

 

Ranking factors that sustain deterrence

Please rank each of the following factors from most important (1) to least important (5) for sustaining national power and deterrence when global supply chains are contested or weaponized:

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.

 

Ability to compress procurement from years to months

To what extent does the following statement accurately describe the average performance of your country of service: “Our national defense system can reliably transform procurement cycles from years to months for urgent operational needs.”

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.

 

Lessons producing observable change

On average, how often do lessons learned from military exercises or operations result in observable changes to doctrine, procedures, or resource allocation?

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.

 

Ranking workforce-learning enablers

Please rank the following factors from most important (1) to least important (5) for enabling disciplined workforce learning of new skills that translate into value for the national defense system:

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.

 

Ability to use research into operational adoption

To what extent do research-to-innovation partnerships with academia, startups, industry consortia, or allied defense organizations reliably transition from jointly developed research to scaled adoption in operational units?

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.

 

Ability to mobilize skilled personnel between government and industry

To what extent is your national defense system able to rapidly mobilize, or move skilled personnel between government and industry (including contractors and suppliers) to meet urgent operational needs or surge requirements?

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.

 

Barriers to staffing critical capabilities

What are the top three barriers that most often prevent your national defense system from fully staffing critical skill capacities within operationally relevant timeframes (e.g., 30-60 days)? Please select up to three responses.

Note: Top 5 responses.

 

Confidence in sovereign decision authority

In a major collective defense or coalition kinetic military operation, how confident are you that your nation could exercise sovereign decision authority without undermining alliance cohesion or operational effectiveness?

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.

 

Extent of societal cohesion supporting wartime mobilization

To what extent does the following statement reflect your country of service: “National defense leaders can assume that society will mobilize behind a future decision to go to war because there is a high level of pre-existing social cohesion and trust in public institutions across society.”

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.

 

Confidence in critical-infrastructure recovery after hybrid attack

In the event of a major non-kinetic hybrid attack that disables critical national or regional infrastructure, how confident are you that military, government, and civilian infrastructure operators would coordinate effectively to restore continuity of service?

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.

 

Extent of end-to-end digital ecosystem in national defense

To what extent does your national defense system maintain an end-to-end digital ecosystem across major defense programs and functions?

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.

 

Budget and Trade

This section features defense spending and targets, global arms imports and exports, and defense industrial strategies and policies across the 13 countries, based on the latest publicly available information.

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Defense spending

Defense spending target

Share of global arms exports

Share of global arms imports

Legislation to prioritize defense contracts and manufacturing

Does the country have legislation to prioritize defense contracts and manufacturing?

Existence of defense industrial strategy with named priorities

Has the country published a defense industrial strategy, investment plan, or budget measure that identifies specific priority production areas such as munitions, missiles, shipbuilding, drones, air defense, cyber, or critical components?

 

Existence of stockpiles and strategic reserves

Does the country publish information on defense-relevant stockpiles, strategic materials, munitions reserves, fuel reserves, medical reserves, or replenishment plans?

Personnel and Bases

This section features the latest available force sizes and targets, conscription and staffing policies, and the number of bases across the 13 countries, based on the latest publicly available information.

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Country population

Force size

Target number of military personnel as a share of current population

Conscription methods

Existence of rapid staffing  policies

Does the country publish policies or programs that enable rapid staffing of defense-critical skills within 30–60 days, including cyber, engineering, logistics, medical, intelligence, acquisition, data science, or electronic warfare roles?

 

Military bases abroad

Domestic military bases

Technology Policy

This section features technology and innovation policies and strategies across the 13 countries, based on the latest publicly available information.

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Existence of a defense innovation agency

Does the country have a defense innovation agency/authority?

Existence of startup and private-sector engagement program

Does the country have a program for engaging with start-ups/the private sector on defense innovation (akin to NATO DIANA/UK Defense and Security Accelerator)?

Governance

This section features crisis mobilization policies and strategies and types of government across the 13 countries, based on the latest publicly available information.

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Legislation to enable rapid or bypassed crisis decision-making

Does the country have legislation or constitutional clause for rapid and/or bypassed decision-making in times of crisis and conflict?

 

Existence of a national mobilization / total-defense framework

Does the country have a published national mobilization, total defense, comprehensive security, or civil preparedness framework that assigns roles to government, military, industry, critical infrastructure operators, and society?

Type of government